The U.S. film industry may be the next casualty in the escalating China-Trump tariff dispute, as Beijing considers targeting Hollywood in its latest round of potential retaliatory measures.
Until now, American studios have mostly avoided direct impact from Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports, largely because movies and streaming content are classified as services, not goods. But the tides may be turning. On Tuesday, two high-profile Chinese commentators signalled that film imports could soon find themselves on the frontline of China’s response to Trump’s tariff threats.
The warnings came from Liu Hong, a senior editor at China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency, and Ren Yi, a well-known political blogger with Communist Party lineage. Both posted identical lists of proposed countermeasures — said to be under government consideration — in response to Trump’s pledge to raise tariffs on all Chinese goods from 54% to a staggering 104% if Beijing does not comply with Washington’s demands. Among the options: reducing or even banning the import of U.S. films.
The coordinated posts suggest a strategic leak, intended to test public reaction or send a warning shot across the Pacific.
The potential blow comes at a time when U.S. studios are already struggling to maintain their foothold in China. Audiences have increasingly gravitated toward local productions, pushing American titles further down the box office rankings. Still, China remains a vital market. Last weekend, Warner Bros. and Legendary’s Minecraft: The Movie earned $14.5 million in its Chinese debut — over 10% of its global total. And in 2024, Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire hauled in $132 million in China, making it the biggest U.S. hit in the country that year.
China’s film sector is tightly regulated, with authorities controlling distribution, release windows, and censorship. Under a long-standing quota system, only 34 foreign films can be released annually under revenue-sharing terms, allowing overseas studios just a 25% cut of box office earnings. Other films are imported via flat-fee deals that offer fewer profits and limited exposure.
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Although Chinese films dominate at home, they have yet to make significant inroads abroad. That imbalance gives the U.S. a rare trade surplus with China in the entertainment sector — something that may now be in jeopardy.
If China follows through on its threat, the China-Trump tariff conflict could cost Hollywood not just millions in lost revenue, but also its privileged status in one of the world’s most lucrative film markets.
